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Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue of $773M and Adjusted EBITDA of $100M met or exceeded guidance; core advertising rose ~$20M YoY on an as-reported basis, while distribution revenue landed near the high end of the range .
  • Against S&P Global consensus, revenue modestly beat (+0.7%), and Primary EPS beat by ~$0.11; GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.02 due to below-the-line items and interest expense; management emphasized cost discipline driving the EBITDA beat *.
  • Q4 2025 guidance calls for core advertising up >10% YoY mid-point, distribution revenue sequentially higher, and Adjusted EBITDA of $132–$154M; FY 2025 guidance tightened with lower capex versus prior quarter .
  • Strategic catalysts: partner station acquisitions (11 closed; $30M+ annualized EBITDA when fully ramped), full redemption of $89M 2027 notes, expected AR securitization facility, and regulatory tailwinds enabling industry consolidation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Met or exceeded guidance on all key financial metrics” with Adjusted EBITDA of $100M; advertising and distribution at high end, media expenses beat .
  • Core advertising improved late in the quarter on stronger live sports and easing macro uncertainty, supporting Q4 core growth of ~10% YoY at mid-point .
  • Balance sheet actions: redeemed $89M 2027 notes, no material maturities until Dec 2029; strong liquidity ($526M cash plus $650M revolver) .

What Went Wrong

  • YoY declines versus 2024 presidential cycle: total revenue down 16% and Adjusted EBITDA down 60%; political advertising dropped from $138M to $6M YoY, pressuring Local Media results .
  • Distribution escalators did not fully offset traditional MVPD subscriber losses in 2025 renewal cycle; churn improvements only modestly helped .
  • GAAP profitability impacted by interest expense and below-the-line items: GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.02 (vs. $1.43 in Q3 2024) and net loss attributable to Sinclair was -$1M .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025YoY (Q3)QoQ (Q3 vs Q2)Consensus (Q3)Beat/Miss
Total Revenue ($M)776 784 773 -16% -1% 767.8*Beat (+0.7%)*
Advertising Revenue ($M)298 322 321 -26% ~flat N/AN/A
Distribution Revenue ($M)451 434 422 -3% -3% N/AN/A
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)112 103 100 -60% -3% N/AN/A
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)-2.30 -0.91 -0.02 -101% 98% -0.8473*Beat*

Note: Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global; values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ3 2024 Total Rev ($M)Q2 2025 Total Rev ($M)Q3 2025 Total Rev ($M)Q3 2025 Core Adv ($M)Q3 2025 Political ($M)Q3 2025 Distribution ($M)Q3 2025 Adj EBITDA ($M)
Local Media845 679 667 269 6 370 92
Tennis60 68 67 14 — 52 16
Other19 46 48 38 — — 6
Corporate & Eliminations-7 -9 -9 (6) — — (14)
Consolidated917 784 773 315 6 422 100

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Total Debt ($M)4,106 4,101
Cash & Equivalents ($M)616 526
Available Revolver ($M)650 650
Liquidity ($B)N/A~$1.2
Shares Outstanding (Total)69.7M 69,635,858
Quarterly Dividend ($/share)$0.25 $0.25
Capex ($M)17 22
STG First Out First Lien Leverage (x)1.8x 1.9x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 release)Current Guidance (Q3 release)Change
Core Advertising Revenue ($M)Q4 2025—340–360 New
Distribution Revenue ($M)Q4 2025—429–441 New
Media Revenue ($M)Q4 2025—809–845 New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q4 2025—132–154 New
Capex ($M)Q4 2025—18–20 New
Corporate G&A ($M)FY 2025176 178 Raised
Stock-based Comp ($M)FY 202554 56 Raised
Amortization of Program Costs ($M)FY 202572 74 Raised
Interest Expense (net) ($M)FY 2025356 356 Maintained
Capex ($M)FY 202582–85 73–75 Lowered
Net Cash Taxes ($M)FY 202543–49 44–47 Narrowed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Regulatory/M&AFCC and court rulings easing ownership limits; strategic review + potential Ventures separation Consolidation opportunity; potential large-scale synergies ($600–$900M industry-wide scenario); simultaneous merge-and-spin preferred Increasingly constructive
Core AdvertisingQ2: pressured by tariffs; green shoots with sports Sequential improvement; live sports driving demand; Q4 core guide +10% YoY mid-point Improving
Distribution/MVPD2025 renewal cycle lighter; vMVPD growth slower; escalators offset churn Modest churn improvement; escalators not fully offsetting subscriber losses; sequential distribution uptick expected in Q4 Mixed but stabilizing
Political AdvertisingQ1/Q2 references to cycle; baseline setExpect record mid-term revenues in 2026 (≥$333M) Building into 2026
EdgeBeam / ATSC 3.0Next-gen broadcast JV; leadership added FCC NPRM to transition away from ATSC 1.0; capacity unlock for data-casting Positive regulatory momentum
Sports RightsNBA to NBC; sports back to OTA; auto tier dynamics Early NFL renewal seen as positive; potential new morning international package for streamer; OTA reach emphasized OTA tailwinds strengthening
Financing/LiquidityRefinancing; longest maturity profile $89M notes redeemed; AR securitization facility expected; no major maturities until 2029 Strengthening flexibility

Management Commentary

  • “Sinclair delivered a strong third quarter, achieving the high end of guidance for advertising and distribution revenue, while media expenses and Adjusted EBITDA beat expectations.”
  • “Once all current and planned partner station acquisitions are completed, we expect to generate at least $30 million in incremental annualized adjusted EBITDA... full run-rate by the second half of 2026.”
  • “We expect political advertising revenue to be at least equal to our 2022 record of $333 million for a midterm election year.”
  • “We further strengthened our balance sheet by retiring the final $89 million of our 2027 notes, leaving no material maturities until December of 2029.”
  • On vMVPD/network disputes: “Local broadcasters have no say in whether our content… will be distributed… This was not the intent of the Communications Act and seems to be… an antitrust issue as well.”

Q&A Highlights

  • MVPD/vMVPD dynamics and YouTube–Disney blackout: management urged regulatory scrutiny; expects fourth-quarter benefit lag as sports return .
  • Core advertising improvement: all key categories up or flat; live sports demand driving CPMs and local spillover; Q4 core up ~10% YoY midpoint .
  • NFL rights: early renewal viewed as positive; potential creation of a new international morning package; OTA reach remains critical .
  • Consolidation: precedent transactions with SEC/DOJ expected to spur volumes; merge-and-spin with Ventures preferred but spin alone could unlock >$1B .
  • Partner station buy-ins: immaterial contribution in Q3, modest in Q4; run-rate EBITDA contribution targeted at $30M+ with minimal upfront capital .

Estimates Context

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025FY 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($M)775.9* (Act 776.0*)799.6* (Act 784.0*)767.8* (Act 773.0*)835.5*3,170.0*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)-0.9064* (Act -1.2504*)-0.7779* (Act -0.9431*)-0.8473* (Act -0.7321*)-0.2582*-3.2270*

Notes: S&P Global consensus and actual values marked with *; values retrieved from S&P Global. GAAP diluted EPS per 8-K was -$0.02 in Q3 2025 .

  • Results vs consensus: revenue beat (+0.7%); Primary EPS beat (~$0.11). 2025 EPS trajectory still negative given elevated interest and below-the-line items *.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 execution was solid relative to guidance and consensus, with cost discipline delivering an EBITDA beat; core advertising momentum into Q4 is a near-term tailwind *.
  • The mix shift away from 2024 political explains YoY declines; underlying core trends and sports exposure support sequential improvement and 2026 midterm strength .
  • Distribution revenues should lift sequentially in Q4; 2026 gross distribution outlook is flattish (no major MVPD renewals), with 2027 a major renewal opportunity .
  • Station portfolio optimization (11 closed; more pending) and anticipated $30M+ run-rate EBITDA by 2H26 create incremental earnings power with limited capital .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity improved: $89M notes redeemed; expected AR facility enhances flexibility for consolidation; no material maturities until 2029 .
  • Regulatory tailwinds (ownership caps, ATSC 3.0 transition) and consolidation scenarios could unlock meaningful industry synergies; Sinclair aims to be an active participant .
  • Near-term trading: focus on Q4 core beat potential and any incremental clarity on AR facility closing; medium-term thesis hinges on consolidation progress, 2026 political, and 2027 retrans renewals .

Additional Context: Relevant Press Releases

  • Tennis Channel extended ITF rights for Davis Cup (through 2028) and Billie Jean King Cup (through 2027), expanding into multiple European markets, supporting Tennis segment durability .
  • Company launched comprehensive strategic review of Broadcast business and evaluation of Ventures separation to crystallize value and enable consolidation .